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After netting nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

While it is not his strongest opening to a term - he registered 11 strikes in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it still puts him three strikes clear in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the award so early in the season.

First, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, equally significant, the number and quality of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the slow start his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of chances he has had.

It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this term from normal play, the Norway forward is receiving significantly more quality chances to find the net than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at scoring from situations than anyone else in the division, he would still have scored more than twice as many goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is shown by analyzing the total and standard of scoring situations that footballers have received in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, a dozen more than any other player.

That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had in fact attempted more open-play attempts at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an xG value of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - thanks to a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Previous Season Assessment

Starting a season so strongly is, as mentioned above, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had scored 10 goals - four additional compared to anyone else and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who claimed the top scorer award with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Actually this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Be it because of physical problems - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - long-running transfer sagas in a specific forward's circumstances or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have not fired so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the Continental scoring award that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That contest is far more competitive at this initial phase because two elite attackers have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The circumstance Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the greatest expected goals of the three players without yet taking any spot-kicks makes him the frontrunner.

But since the two continental superstars are two of the best finishers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.