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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.